CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T03:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-04T01:45Z Radial velocity (km/s): 703 Longitude (deg): 39W Latitude (deg): 09S Half-angular width (deg): 34 Notes: First guess fit not incorporating all the shock. Enlil models a miss or perhaps a glancing blow with the bulk passing ahead. Low confidence with further analysis ongoing. Space weather advisor: ATLead Time: 76.58 hour(s)
Difference: 19.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-10-04T17:37Z
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